N※N

How Trump turned the tide in his trade war | CNN Business

Trump's Trade Agenda: A Deep Dive into Past Deals and Future Prospects

In the ever-evolving landscape of global trade, former President Donald Trump's approach has left an indelible mark, characterized by aggressive negotiations, tariff impositions, and a focus on bilateral deals over multilateral frameworks. As speculation mounts about a potential return to the White House in 2025, analysts and business leaders are closely examining how Trump's trade policies could reshape international commerce. This analysis draws from his first term's achievements and setbacks, offering insights into what a second Trump administration might entail for trade deals worldwide.

Trump's trade philosophy, often dubbed "America First," prioritizes reducing trade deficits, protecting domestic industries, and leveraging tariffs as bargaining tools. During his presidency from 2017 to 2021, he withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a massive multilateral agreement involving 12 Pacific Rim countries, arguing it disadvantaged American workers. Instead, he pursued one-on-one negotiations, believing they gave the U.S. greater leverage. One of the most prominent outcomes was the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020. Trump hailed USMCA as a "colossal victory" for American farmers, manufacturers, and auto workers, incorporating stricter labor and environmental standards, digital trade provisions, and rules to boost North American content in automobiles.

The USMCA negotiations were fraught with tension. Trump threatened tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, including a 25% levy on steel and aluminum, to pressure his counterparts. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau eventually conceded to key demands, such as opening Canada's dairy market to U.S. exports and implementing wage requirements for Mexican auto workers to curb outsourcing. Economists estimate that USMCA has modestly boosted U.S. GDP by about 0.35%, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission, though critics argue it largely mirrors NAFTA with incremental changes. For businesses, the deal provided certainty after years of uncertainty, but supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted vulnerabilities in the integrated North American economy.

Beyond North America, Trump's trade war with China dominated headlines. Initiated in 2018, it involved imposing tariffs on over $360 billion worth of Chinese goods, ranging from electronics to machinery, in response to alleged intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and unfair subsidies. China retaliated with duties on U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and pork, devastating American farmers who relied on the Chinese market. The conflict escalated to a point where global supply chains were disrupted, contributing to higher consumer prices and economic uncertainty.

The Phase One trade deal signed in January 2020 marked a temporary truce. Under its terms, China committed to purchasing an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over two years, including $80 billion in agricultural products, and to strengthen protections for American intellectual property. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to halve some tariffs and delay others. However, implementation fell short; China met only about 58% of its purchase commitments by the end of 2021, per the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Trump administration officials, including Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, defended the deal as a step toward rebalancing the U.S.-China relationship, but detractors like Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized it for failing to address core issues like state-owned enterprises and human rights.

Trump also secured bilateral agreements with other key partners. In 2019, he finalized a limited trade deal with Japan, focusing on agriculture and digital trade, which eliminated or reduced tariffs on $7 billion in U.S. farm exports like beef and pork. This was seen as a win for Midwestern farmers, though it stopped short of a comprehensive free trade agreement. Similarly, the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) was renegotiated in 2018, with concessions from South Korea on auto imports and steel quotas, averting Trump's threat to withdraw entirely.

Looking ahead to 2025, if Trump were to reclaim the presidency, his trade agenda could intensify. Campaign rhetoric suggests a revival of high tariffs, potentially a 60% levy on all Chinese imports and 10-20% on goods from other countries, as floated in recent speeches. This "universal baseline tariff" aims to encourage domestic manufacturing but risks igniting new trade wars. Experts warn that such measures could exacerbate inflation, with the Tax Foundation estimating an additional $1,700 annual cost per U.S. household from higher import prices.

In Europe, Trump has signaled interest in confronting the European Union over trade imbalances, particularly in autos and agriculture. During his first term, he imposed tariffs on EU steel and aluminum, prompting retaliation on American whiskey, motorcycles, and jeans. A second term might push for a U.S.-UK trade deal post-Brexit, though negotiations stalled previously over issues like food standards and pharmaceuticals. Trump's team has also eyed deals with India and Brazil, focusing on reducing barriers in technology and energy sectors.

The business community remains divided. Tech giants like Apple and Intel, reliant on Chinese supply chains, have lobbied against tariffs, citing increased costs and disrupted operations. Conversely, industries like steel and aluminum have benefited from protectionism, with U.S. Steel reporting higher profits amid reduced foreign competition. Farmers, scarred by the China trade war, are wary; the American Farm Bureau Federation has called for "predictable" trade policies to avoid market volatility.

Globally, Trump's approach challenges the World Trade Organization (WTO), which he accused of bias against the U.S. By blocking appellate body appointments, his administration effectively paralyzed the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism, a move that persists today. A return could further erode multilateralism, pushing countries toward regional blocs like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which evolved from the TPP without U.S. involvement.

Economically, the impacts of Trump's trade deals are mixed. A 2023 study by the Brookings Institution found that while tariffs created some manufacturing jobs—about 140,000 by one estimate—they led to net job losses in retaliatory sectors and higher costs for consumers. The trade deficit, a key Trump metric, actually widened during his term, from $502 billion in 2016 to $679 billion in 2020, influenced by factors like the pandemic and currency fluctuations.

As the 2024 election approaches, Trump's trade legacy looms large. Supporters view his deals as bold assertions of U.S. sovereignty, forcing concessions from trading partners. Critics, including many economists, argue they fostered inefficiency and isolationism, potentially ceding global leadership to China. For instance, China's Belt and Road Initiative has expanded influence in Asia and Africa while the U.S. focused inward.

In conclusion, Trump's trade deals represent a paradigm shift from post-World War II norms, emphasizing bilateralism and protectionism. Whether this strategy strengthens America's position or invites backlash will depend on execution in a potential second term. As global tensions rise—with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East affecting supply chains—trade policy will be pivotal. Businesses, governments, and consumers worldwide are bracing for what could be another era of disruption and renegotiation under a Trump-led administration. The question remains: Can "America First" coexist with a interconnected global economy, or will it lead to further fragmentation? Only time, and perhaps the ballot box, will tell.

(Word count: 1,048)

Read the Full CNN Article at:
[ https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/23/business/trump-trade-deals ]