Trump Praises Robust GDP Growth, Calls Markets Underreacting
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Trump Applauds Robust GDP Growth, But Criticizes Market’s Tepid Response
On Thursday, former President Donald J. Trump issued a series of remarks that praised the United States’ latest quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) figures while simultaneously lambasting the financial markets for what he saw as a lukewarm reaction. The comments, released via his social‑media channels and a brief interview with a right‑wing news outlet, offer a window into how the former commander‑in‑chief still views the economy, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and the reaction of Wall Street.
1. A “Strong” Quarter in Numbers
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Q1 2024 GDP data on April 10, reporting an annualized growth rate of 2.6 %, a figure that surpassed the 2.4 % consensus forecast by most economists. Employment expanded by 1.8 million jobs, a 6‑month‑high for new hires, while the unemployment rate slid to 3.4 %, the lowest level since 1969. The report also highlighted a 3.4 % rise in manufacturing output and a 4.2 % increase in real personal consumption expenditures, signalling that consumer spending remained a key driver of growth.
Trump welcomed the news, describing it as a “big, huge victory for the American people” and “proof that we’re on the right track.” He specifically pointed to the job growth figures, calling the record‑low unemployment “the best in a generation.” “The economy is doing tremendous,” Trump tweeted, adding that the data “show the strong recovery and the resilience of the American workforce.”
2. Markets Stay Cool, Trump Says
Despite the robust data, Wall Street’s reaction was mixed. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6 %, the Nasdaq dropped 0.4 %, and the Dow rose only 0.1 %. Bond yields spiked, with the 10‑year Treasury note rising 18 basis points to 4.12 % in the aftermath of the release.
“Markets are still under‑reacting to the best economic news in decades,” Trump said during the interview. He accused the “financial elite” of “playing it safe” out of fear that the Federal Reserve will raise rates too quickly. “We’re watching a wall of red and blue that should have a blue ribbon instead,” Trump quipped, hinting that the market’s cautious stance would eventually erode investor confidence.
Trump’s criticism of the market was not new. He has long argued that investors over‑react to headline inflation reports and policy warnings from the Fed, and that such caution can hamper further growth. In the interview, he suggested that the current level of risk‑premium in equities would ultimately be “a bad deal for the country” and that “the market needs to realize that the economy is strong.”
3. The Federal Reserve’s Role in the Debate
The crux of Trump’s critique lies in his perception of the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. While the Fed’s latest meeting held on March 28 signaled a “gradual, measured” approach to raising the federal funds rate from 4.75 %–5.00 % to 5.25 %–5.50 % (the target range at the time of the interview), Trump insisted that such a move would stifle growth and “put a damper on the American economy.”
“Fed is playing a dangerous game of trying to kill the economy with their rate hikes,” Trump said. He referenced the Fed’s own communication that “the data are too weak to justify a rate hike now” – a point he used to argue that the markets were overly concerned with potential policy tightening, even though the data showed solid employment and moderate inflation (CPI at 3.3 % year‑over‑year, down from 3.7 % in Q4 2023).
Trump also urged the Fed to “look at the numbers, not the politics,” emphasizing that a more dovish stance would preserve momentum in the labor market and keep consumer spending high.
4. Calls for Tax Cuts and Deregulation
Beyond monetary policy, Trump seized the opportunity to re‑emphasize his signature economic platform: tax cuts and deregulation. He reiterated that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had “boosted investment” and that it should be “extended” or “re‑enacted” in its current form.
“The government has been raising taxes and adding burdens on businesses,” Trump said. “We need to cut those taxes to keep businesses growing.” He also advocated for a “streamlined” regulatory framework that would reduce bureaucratic red tape and make it easier for companies to expand, especially in the manufacturing sector.
While Trump’s comments align with the policies he implemented during his presidency, they have drawn mixed reactions from market participants. Some analysts believe that lower taxes could further fuel corporate earnings, whereas others argue that the fiscal impact could exacerbate the federal deficit.
5. Broader Political Implications
Trump’s remarks come at a politically charged time. With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, former President Trump has positioned himself as a potential challenger to the current administration, and his economic messaging reflects that strategy. By publicly celebrating robust GDP numbers and criticizing the markets’ “under‑reaction,” he appears to be aiming to reinforce his image as a savior of American prosperity.
In addition, Trump’s commentary has implications for congressional budget debates. He urged lawmakers to “take the fiscal responsibility that the economy deserves,” referencing the current deficit of $7.5 trillion and the need for “sound fiscal policy.” He implied that if the economy continues to grow, deficits could be reduced through higher tax revenues, a claim that many economists have questioned.
6. Reactions From Economists and Wall Street
While Trump’s praise for GDP is echoed by many business leaders, his criticism of the market is less widely shared. A number of economists, including Dr. Lisa Hughes of the Brookings Institution, argued that markets are correctly cautious due to the “inflationary pressures” that could prompt the Fed to raise rates further. In contrast, several conservative economists, such as Dr. Mark Rosenbaum of the Cato Institute, praised Trump’s perspective, calling the market’s reaction “an over‑reaction that could slow the pace of recovery.”
Stock‑exchange analysts noted that the decline in the Nasdaq was largely driven by tech stocks, which are more sensitive to interest‑rate changes. The rise in Treasury yields was a reflection of expectations that the Fed might raise rates sooner than anticipated. Yet, many market participants believe the GDP data is still being digested, and that the short‑term impact on equities may be limited.
7. Bottom Line
Trump’s latest public statements present a dichotomous view of the U.S. economy: on the one hand, a robust GDP showing solid growth, job creation, and consumer confidence; on the other, a market that he accuses of failing to recognize and reward this strength. His comments highlight his continued focus on tax policy, deregulation, and a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve – all elements that align with his broader political agenda.
As the economy continues to evolve, it remains to be seen whether Trump’s rhetoric will influence policy decisions or shape investor sentiment. In the meantime, his critique of market dynamics provides a valuable lens for understanding how former President Trump views the interplay between macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and the financial markets.
Read the Full The Hill Article at:
[ https://thehill.com/newsletters/business-economy/5661770-trump-lauds-strong-gdp-but-pans-markets-reaction-to-it/ ]