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YES Bank shares Q1 results today: Check concall timing; previews & price targets - BusinessToday

Yes Bank Shares in Focus as Q1 FY26 Results Loom: Analyst Previews, Concall Details, and Price Targets

Mumbai, July 19, 2025 – Investors and market watchers are closely monitoring Yes Bank today as the private sector lender is set to announce its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (Q1 FY26). The bank's performance comes at a pivotal time amid evolving economic conditions, including fluctuating interest rates, regulatory changes in the banking sector, and broader market volatility. Yes Bank, which has been on a recovery path following its restructuring a few years ago, is expected to showcase improvements in key metrics such as net interest income (NII), asset quality, and deposit growth. This article delves into the previews from leading analysts, the scheduled earnings conference call details, recent stock performance, and updated price targets, providing a comprehensive overview for stakeholders.

Analyst Previews: Expectations for Robust Growth

Leading brokerage firms and financial analysts have issued detailed previews ahead of Yes Bank's Q1 results, painting a picture of cautious optimism. According to reports from firms like Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Kotak Institutional Equities, and ICICI Securities, the bank is anticipated to report a healthy year-on-year (YoY) growth in its core earnings. Analysts project NII to rise by approximately 15-20% YoY, driven by steady loan book expansion and stable net interest margins (NIMs). This growth is attributed to Yes Bank's strategic focus on retail and small-medium enterprise (SME) lending, which has helped diversify its portfolio away from high-risk corporate exposures that plagued it in the past.

One key area of interest is asset quality. Yes Bank's gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio stood at around 2% in the previous quarter, and experts foresee a slight improvement or stability in this metric for Q1 FY26. Provisions for bad loans are expected to remain moderate, potentially declining by 10-15% YoY, reflecting better recovery efforts and a more conservative underwriting approach. On the deposit front, analysts from Emkay Global predict a deposit growth of 18-20% YoY, bolstered by competitive interest rates and digital banking initiatives that have attracted a younger customer base.

However, challenges persist. The bank's cost-to-income ratio, which hovered around 60% in recent quarters, might see marginal pressure due to investments in technology and branch expansions. Additionally, fee income from non-lending activities, such as wealth management and transaction banking, is projected to contribute positively, with estimates suggesting a 12-15% YoY uptick. Overall, profit after tax (PAT) is forecasted to grow by 20-25% YoY, with some optimistic scenarios pointing towards even higher figures if slippages remain low.

These previews are not without caveats. Macroeconomic headwinds, including potential slowdowns in consumer spending and regulatory scrutiny on unsecured lending, could impact the results. Analysts emphasize that Yes Bank's ability to maintain NIMs above 3.5% will be crucial, especially in a high-interest-rate environment where funding costs are elevated.

Earnings Conference Call: Timing and What to Expect

To provide deeper insights into the Q1 performance, Yes Bank has scheduled an earnings conference call for today. The call is set to commence at 5:30 PM IST, following the release of the financial results around 4:00 PM IST. Investors can access the concall through the bank's investor relations portal or via dial-in numbers provided in the regulatory filing. The session will be hosted by Yes Bank's Managing Director and CEO, Prashant Kumar, along with senior executives from finance and operations.

During the call, management is expected to discuss key highlights from the quarter, including breakdowns of revenue streams, updates on asset quality trends, and guidance for the full fiscal year. Topics likely to be covered include the bank's digital transformation initiatives, such as enhancements to its mobile app and partnerships with fintech firms, which have been instrumental in driving customer acquisition. Analysts anticipate questions on the impact of recent RBI guidelines on liquidity coverage ratios and how Yes Bank plans to navigate potential rate cuts later in the year.

The concall will also address strategic priorities, such as expanding the retail deposit base and optimizing the capital adequacy ratio, which was comfortably above 15% in the last reported quarter. For those unable to attend live, a replay and transcript will be available on the bank's website shortly after the event, ensuring transparency and accessibility for global investors.

Stock Performance: Recent Trends and Market Sentiment

Yes Bank's shares have been under the spotlight in the lead-up to these results. As of the market close on July 18, 2025, the stock was trading at around Rs 25.50 on the BSE, reflecting a modest 2% gain over the past week but a 15% decline year-to-date. This performance mirrors broader banking sector trends, where mid-tier lenders have faced pressure from profit booking and concerns over margin compression.

Intraday movements today are expected to be volatile, with the stock opening flat but potentially reacting sharply post-results. Trading volumes have surged in recent sessions, indicating heightened investor interest. The bank's market capitalization stands at approximately Rs 75,000 crore, positioning it as a significant player in the private banking space, though still trailing giants like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.

Market sentiment is mixed. Positive catalysts include Yes Bank's successful capital raises in previous years and its tie-ups with international investors, which have bolstered confidence. However, lingering memories of the 2020 crisis, when the bank required a bailout led by State Bank of India, continue to influence perceptions. Technical analysts note that the stock is trading above its 50-day moving average, suggesting potential upside if results exceed expectations.

Price Targets and Brokerage Recommendations

Brokerages have updated their price targets based on Q1 previews, offering a range of valuations. Motilal Oswal maintains a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 32, implying a 25% upside from current levels. Their rationale hinges on expected earnings growth and improving return on assets (RoA), projected to reach 1% by FY27.

Kotak Institutional Equities echoes this optimism, setting a target of Rs 30 with a 'Buy' call, citing strong deposit mobilization and controlled credit costs. ICICI Securities, however, is more conservative, assigning a 'Hold' rating and a target of Rs 27, warning of near-term NIM pressures due to rising deposit costs.

Emkay Global provides one of the higher targets at Rs 35, emphasizing Yes Bank's undervalued position relative to peers, with a price-to-book ratio of around 1.2x. Conversely, some global firms like Macquarie have a neutral stance, with a target of Rs 24, highlighting risks from economic slowdowns.

These targets are derived from discounted cash flow models, peer comparisons, and earnings multiples. Analysts generally agree that sustained execution on growth strategies could drive re-rating, potentially pushing the stock towards Rs 40 in the medium term.

Broader Implications for Investors and the Banking Sector

The Q1 results of Yes Bank are not just a litmus test for the bank itself but also indicative of trends in India's private banking landscape. With the economy showing signs of resilience—GDP growth projected at 7% for FY26—lenders like Yes Bank are poised to benefit from increased credit demand in retail and infrastructure segments. However, inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties could pose risks.

For retail investors, today's developments offer an opportunity to assess Yes Bank's turnaround story. The bank's emphasis on sustainable growth, coupled with regulatory compliance, positions it well for long-term value creation. Institutional investors, meanwhile, will scrutinize metrics like CASA (current account savings account) ratio, which is expected to improve to 30-32%, as a gauge of funding stability.

In conclusion, as Yes Bank unveils its Q1 FY26 results, the focus will be on whether it can build on its recovery momentum. With analyst previews pointing to solid growth, a detailed concall for transparency, and varied price targets reflecting diverse views, the stock remains a compelling watch. Investors are advised to monitor post-results commentary closely, as it could influence not only Yes Bank's trajectory but also sentiment in the broader financial services sector. Stay tuned for updates as the day unfolds.

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