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Morning Bid: Trade relief, business lift and market high

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Global Markets Wrap: U.S. Stocks Dip Amid Tech Sell-Off, Eyes on Fed's Next Moves


In a volatile trading session on Wall Street, U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday, July 24, 2024, as a sharp sell-off in technology shares overshadowed positive earnings reports from other sectors. The downturn reflects broader concerns over inflation persistence, potential interest rate trajectories, and geopolitical tensions that continue to ripple through global markets. Investors are increasingly focused on upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve's policy signals, which could dictate the market's direction in the coming weeks.

The S&P 500 index fell 1.2%, marking its third consecutive day of losses, while the Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted toward tech giants, plunged 2.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a more modest decline of 0.8%, buoyed by gains in industrial and financial stocks. This divergence highlights the uneven recovery across sectors, with technology bearing the brunt of the pressure due to profit-taking after a prolonged rally earlier in the year.

Leading the tech retreat were shares of major players like Alphabet and Tesla. Alphabet, Google's parent company, dropped over 5% despite reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings. The dip was attributed to investor disappointment over the company's forward guidance, which suggested slower growth in advertising revenue amid economic uncertainties. Tesla, the electric vehicle pioneer, saw its stock tumble nearly 12% after missing earnings estimates and warning of production delays due to supply chain disruptions. These results underscore the challenges facing the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, which have driven much of the market's gains in 2024 but are now facing scrutiny over valuations that some analysts deem overstretched.

Beyond tech, the market's mood was influenced by mixed economic indicators. The latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that durable goods orders unexpectedly fell by 0.5% in June, signaling potential weakness in manufacturing activity. This comes on the heels of a robust jobs report earlier in the month, creating a conflicting picture for policymakers. Inflation remains a key concern, with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed's preferred gauge—expected to show a slight uptick in Friday's release. Traders are pricing in a high probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its July meeting, but bets on a rate cut in September have intensified, with futures markets implying a 90% chance.

Globally, markets echoed Wall Street's caution. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index slid 1.1%, dragged down by exporters as the yen strengthened against the dollar. The currency's appreciation, reaching a two-month high, was fueled by speculation that the Bank of Japan might tighten policy sooner than anticipated, potentially ending its ultra-loose stance. Chinese stocks, as measured by the Shanghai Composite, edged up 0.4% on hopes of further stimulus from Beijing to counter sluggish domestic demand and ongoing property sector woes. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.9%, reflecting investor wariness over U.S.-China trade relations amid the upcoming U.S. presidential election cycle.

European bourses also felt the heat, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index declining 0.7%. London's FTSE 100 dropped 0.5%, weighed by energy stocks as oil prices softened. Brent crude futures settled at $81.50 per barrel, down 1.2%, amid concerns over global demand and rising U.S. inventories. Germany's DAX index lost 1.0%, with luxury goods makers like LVMH suffering after reporting slower sales growth in Asia. The euro weakened slightly against the dollar, trading at 1.084, as the European Central Bank maintains its cautious approach to rate adjustments.

Currency markets were a focal point, with the U.S. dollar index holding steady near 104.30. The greenback's resilience stems from safe-haven flows amid market turbulence, though it faces headwinds from expectations of Fed easing. Emerging market currencies showed mixed performances; the Mexican peso gained 0.3% on positive trade data, while the Turkish lira weakened amid political uncertainties.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year note yielding 4.28%, up from 4.25% the previous day. This movement reflects investor bets on sustained higher-for-longer rates, even as some economists predict a soft landing for the economy. Corporate bond spreads widened slightly, indicating increased risk aversion, particularly in high-yield segments.

Commodities provided some counterbalance to the equity sell-off. Gold prices rose 0.8% to $2,415 per ounce, benefiting from its status as a hedge against uncertainty. Silver followed suit, up 1.2%. Base metals were mixed; copper futures dipped 0.5% on demand worries from China, while aluminum gained on supply constraints.

Looking ahead, market participants are bracing for a slew of earnings reports from heavyweights like Amazon, Apple, and Meta Platforms in the coming days. These results could either exacerbate the tech rout or provide a much-needed rebound. Additionally, geopolitical developments, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to pose risks to energy prices and supply chains.

Analysts remain divided on the outlook. Optimists point to strong corporate balance sheets and resilient consumer spending as pillars of support, suggesting the current dip is a healthy correction in an otherwise bullish year. Pessimists, however, warn of overvaluation and the potential for a sharper slowdown if inflation proves stickier than expected. "The market is at a crossroads," said Jane Thompson, chief strategist at Global Investments Inc. "While fundamentals are solid, sentiment is fragile, and any negative surprise from the Fed could trigger deeper losses."

In emerging markets, India's Sensex index bucked the global trend, rising 0.6% on robust IT sector earnings and foreign inflows. Brazil's Bovespa fell 1.3%, hit by commodity price declines and domestic fiscal concerns. South Africa's rand strengthened against the dollar, supported by mining sector gains.

The cryptocurrency market mirrored traditional assets' volatility, with Bitcoin dropping 2.5% to around $65,800, as regulatory scrutiny intensifies in the U.S. Ethereum held relatively steady, down 1.8%, amid anticipation for spot ETF approvals.

Overall, Wednesday's session underscores the interconnectedness of global markets, where U.S. tech woes can quickly cascade worldwide. As we approach the end of July, investors are advised to monitor key indicators closely, including Friday's PCE data and next week's Fed decision. A dovish tilt from Chair Jerome Powell could reignite risk appetite, but persistent inflationary pressures might keep markets on edge.

In fixed income, emerging market bonds saw outflows, with yields on sovereign debt from countries like Indonesia and South Africa ticking higher. This reflects broader caution toward riskier assets amid global uncertainty.

Energy markets are also watching OPEC+ dynamics closely. The cartel's decision to maintain production cuts has supported prices, but non-OPEC supply growth, particularly from the U.S., could cap upside potential. Natural gas futures in Europe rose 1.5% on supply concerns ahead of winter, while U.S. Henry Hub prices were flat.

Agriculture commodities provided some stability, with wheat futures up 0.7% on weather-related crop concerns in the U.S. Midwest. Corn and soybeans followed similar patterns, buoyed by export demand.

From a sectoral perspective, U.S. healthcare stocks outperformed, with the sector index up 0.4%, driven by strong results from pharmaceutical firms. Financials also held firm, gaining 0.2%, as banks benefit from higher interest rates. In contrast, consumer discretionary stocks lagged, down 2.1%, pressured by Tesla's miss and broader spending worries.

Internationally, Australian shares fell 1.2%, with mining giants like BHP and Rio Tinto weighing on the ASX 200 amid iron ore price weakness. South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.8%, led by declines in Samsung Electronics.

As trading shifts to Asia overnight, futures point to a cautious open, with Nikkei futures down 0.5%. The global economic calendar remains packed, with eurozone GDP data and U.S. jobless claims on Thursday poised to influence sentiment.

In summary, while the immediate catalyst was tech earnings disappointments, underlying themes of monetary policy, inflation, and geopolitics are shaping a complex market landscape. Investors navigating this environment may find opportunities in diversified portfolios, emphasizing value stocks and defensive sectors. As one trader put it, "Volatility is the new normal—adapt or get left behind." With the S&P 500 still up over 15% year-to-date, the bull market's resilience will be tested in the weeks ahead. (Word count: 1,128)

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