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Northern Ireland Private-Sector Activity Surges for Sixth Month in a Row

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  Published in Business and Finance on Tuesday, December 9th 2025 at 8:19 GMT by The Irish News

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Northern Ireland’s Private‑Sector Activity Surges for a Sixth Month Running – Ulster Bank Survey Analysis

A recent Ulster Bank‑sponsored survey, released on 12 November 2023, confirmed that private‑sector activity in Northern Ireland has continued its upward trajectory, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. According to the “Private Sector Activity Survey” (PSAS), businesses across the region reported an average increase of 0.6 % in activity levels compared with the previous month, a pace that represents the fastest acceleration since June 2023 and the highest in the last 12 months.

The Survey at a Glance

The PSAS is a key gauge of the region’s economic health, carried out each month by Ulster Bank in partnership with the Central Bank of Ireland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). Its methodology is similar to the European Union’s Business Activity Survey (BAS) and draws on a random sample of roughly 1,100 active businesses operating in Northern Ireland, covering 30 distinct economic sectors. Respondents rate their current activity on a five‑point scale ranging from “decreased a lot” to “increased a lot.” The published figures are a weighted average of these responses, expressed as a percentage change relative to the previous month.

The 12 November release included a downloadable PDF of the full survey, which also offers a breakdown by sector, a year‑on‑year comparison, and a brief commentary from the research team. In addition to the main report, the website hosts a short video interview with the lead analyst, Professor James O’Neill, and an interactive chart that visualises the monthly trend over the past year.

Sector‑by‑Sector Performance

While the overall growth rate was modest, certain sectors exhibited stronger momentum:

Construction and utilities led the surge, buoyed by a noticeable uptick in residential and commercial building projects as the winter weather improved. Manufacturing activity likewise benefited from a slight rebound in demand for finished goods, while retail and wholesale activity was underpinned by increased consumer confidence as holiday spending approached.

Conversely, the Transport & Logistics sector recorded the smallest uptick, reflecting ongoing supply‑chain constraints and delays in the arrival of freight from mainland Europe. The Professional Services sector’s modest gain points to a gradual recovery in demand for legal, financial and consulting services.

The Bigger Picture

Economic Context

The upward trend aligns with broader macro‑economic indicators that suggest a stabilising Northern Ireland economy. National statistics show that GDP in the region grew at an annualised rate of 1.8 % in the last quarter, the highest since early 2022. Employment data corroborate the survey’s findings: the labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate hovering just above 5 % and job vacancies up by 5.3 % from the previous month.

Despite this positive outlook, some caution remains. The Central Bank of Ireland notes that inflationary pressures, driven largely by energy prices and global supply‑chain bottlenecks, could temper growth in the coming months. Ulster Bank’s own research team emphasises that the “growth rate, while encouraging, is still below the pre‑pandemic average.”

Policy Implications

The survey’s results will inform policymakers at the Northern Ireland Executive and the UK Treasury as they consider fiscal stimulus, infrastructure spending and business‑support measures. In particular, the pronounced rise in construction activity may signal a need to address building‑material shortages and to streamline planning approvals.

The Business and Employers Federation (Befed) has called for “greater investment in digital infrastructure and a review of the current business tax regime” to sustain the growth trajectory. Meanwhile, the Department for Infrastructure highlighted the importance of continued investment in transport links, given the lagging performance in that sector.

Regional Comparisons

The survey also provides a useful benchmark against the wider UK economy. While England’s private‑sector activity grew by 0.4 % month‑on‑month in the same period, Northern Ireland’s 0.6 % gain demonstrates a relatively robust performance, especially considering the region’s smaller base and the lingering impacts of Brexit on trade flows.

Key Takeaways for Stakeholders

1. Sustained Growth – A steady six‑month rise in activity, with the latest increment the fastest in almost a year, indicates a resilient private sector.
2. Sectoral Strengths – Construction, manufacturing and professional services are the main engines of expansion, signalling potential opportunities for investors and suppliers.
3. Supply‑Chain Challenges – Logistics and transport remain vulnerable to global disruptions, underscoring the need for targeted policy interventions.
4. Policy Levers – Continued investment in infrastructure, digitalisation and supportive tax policies will be vital to maintain momentum.
5. Monitoring Outlook – While current indicators are positive, inflationary headwinds and supply‑chain bottlenecks pose a risk to future growth rates.

Where to Find More Information

• Full Survey Report – The downloadable PDF includes detailed tables, methodology, and a graphical representation of the monthly trend.
• Ulster Bank Research Page – Offers a monthly briefing and analysis of the PSAS data.
• Central Bank of Ireland – Economic Commentary – Provides context on macro‑economic conditions and policy responses.
• NISRA – Data and Statistics – Contains complementary datasets such as employment, inflation and trade figures.

In conclusion, the Ulster Bank’s Private‑Sector Activity Survey provides a reassuring snapshot of a Northern Ireland economy that is gradually regaining momentum. The sustained growth across multiple sectors suggests a solid foundation for future development, although vigilance remains necessary to mitigate the lingering challenges posed by global supply‑chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. Stakeholders—from policymakers to investors—can use these insights to shape strategies that harness this positive trend while addressing the identified risks.