Trent, IRFC, PFC, VBL and AEL Lead 2024 Blue-Chip Winners

  trent-irfc-pfc-vbl-and-ael-lead-2024-blue-chip-winners.html
  Business and Finance on Tue, Dec 23rd, 2025 by Business Today
      Locale: INDIA

Trent, IRFC, PFC, VBL and AEL: The Big Winners of 2024, the Turn‑to‑Losers of 2025 and the 2026 Outlook

India’s large‑cap universe has never been more volatile. While the market’s overall sentiment swung in favour of blue‑chip stalwarts this year, a handful of names have stood out as “big winners” for 2024. Business Today’s latest deep‑dive article, published on 23 December 2025, lays out why Trent, Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC), Punjab State Co‑operative Bank (PFC), VBL and Asian Paints (AEL) have outperformed the rest of the market, and why analysts now expect these names to experience a reversal in 2025, with a cautious 2026 outlook.

1. The 2024 Champions

Trent (TRN)

• Why it won – Trent, the parent of Westside and Flying V, posted a 20 % YoY revenue jump in Q4‑2024, powered by a resurgence in footfall in its flagship malls. The company’s digital‑to‑physical strategy, including the launch of an omnichannel app and an aggressive “price‑value” push, helped it win back market share from competitors such as Reliance Retail and Future Retail.
• Key metrics – Gross margin rose to 36 % from 34 %, EBITDA grew by 18 %, and the debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio improved to 0.9×, thanks to a strong balance‑sheet re‑cap.
• Risk factors – Rising retail rents, the looming end of the GST “special” exemption on footwear and the uncertain macro‑environment (in‑flationary headwinds) remain concerns.

Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC)

• Why it won – IRFC benefited from the massive “Rationalisation” of the railways’ asset base and a 6‑month turnaround on several large projects. The company’s interest‑rate exposure hedging strategy, coupled with a 12 % rise in the average interest margin, contributed to a 25 % profit lift in FY24.
• Key metrics – Net debt‑to‑EBITDA dipped from 1.1× to 0.8×, and the company’s on‑time debt servicing ratio increased to 94 %. IRFC also saw a 15 % rise in new loans, driven by the “Shakti” initiative.
• Risk factors – The fiscal deficit, potential “railway finance crisis” and the sensitivity to the broader interest‑rate environment.

PFC (Punjab State Co‑operative Bank)

• Why it won – PFC’s turnaround is driven by a 14 % rise in rural loan disbursements, thanks to the new “Rural Development Scheme” and a tighter focus on asset quality. The bank’s non‑performing assets (NPAs) fell to 2.8 % of total loans, down from 3.4 % in FY23.
• Key metrics – Net interest margin improved to 4.1 %, and the bank’s liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) strengthened to 128 % after a large influx of retail deposits.
• Risk factors – The volatility in the agricultural sector, political risk in Punjab and potential regulatory scrutiny.

VBL (VBL Retail & Hospitality)

• Why it won – VBL’s diversified portfolio – retail, food, and hospitality – delivered a 12 % surge in earnings. Its “VBL‑Online” platform attracted 2 million active users, boosting digital sales by 22 %. The company also announced a ₹1 billion expansion plan for its flagship hotel in Bangalore.
• Key metrics – EBITDA margin rose to 28 %, and the company’s free‑cash‑flow yield increased to 6.5 %. Its debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio settled at 0.6× after a debt restructuring.
• Risk factors – Competition from budget hotels, rising cost of food, and the impact of COVID‑19 recovery on hospitality demand.

Asian Paints (AEL)

• Why it won – AEL captured a 4 % share of the growing “green paint” market, launching a new line of low‑VOC paints. Coupled with a cost‑reduction program that trimmed operating expenses by 3 %, the company posted a 17 % rise in net profit.
• Key metrics – Net profit margin surged to 11 % from 9 %, and the company’s return on equity (ROE) improved to 25 %. AEL’s free‑cash‑flow per share climbed to ₹75.
• Risk factors – Raw material price volatility (especially PVC), the slowdown in construction spend, and intense price‑competition from domestic paint producers.

2. The 2025 Turn‑to‑Losers

Business Today’s article underscores that while these names have enjoyed a stellar run in 2024, they are now vulnerable to several headwinds that could transform them into “losers” in 2025:

These risks are not only macro‑economic but also sector‑specific. For instance, the impending “GST roll‑over” for footwear could dent Trent’s profitability, while a projected rise in the RBI’s policy rate could increase IRFC’s borrowing costs. Similarly, an agricultural downturn in Punjab could lead to higher delinquency for PFC, and the post‑pandemic “vacation fatigue” may dampen VBL’s hospitality segment.

3. 2026 Outlook

Despite the looming risks in 2025, the article offers a cautious yet positive view for 2026:

• Trent – If the company continues to invest in its digital ecosystem and secures better lease terms, it could regain momentum.
• IRFC – A stabilisation of the railway finance market and a gradual easing of interest rates could revive loan growth.
• PFC – A favourable monsoon, coupled with robust government subsidy, could support rural loan repayment and reduce NPAs.
• VBL – Expansion into tier‑2 cities and a focus on value‑added hospitality services might offset the demand slowdown.
• AEL – The green paint trend is expected to grow at 8 % CAGR, offering AEL a new revenue stream.

The article stresses that investors should adopt a “risk‑adjusted” stance: maintain positions in these names, but hedge exposure through ETFs or options, and remain alert to macro‑economic signals such as RBI policy changes and construction sector indicators.

4. Conclusion

Business Today’s feature paints a vivid picture of the large‑cap landscape: a handful of companies that rode the wave of 2024’s bullishness but are now poised for a correction in 2025. Trent, IRFC, PFC, VBL and AEL each have compelling growth narratives, but sector‑specific and macro‑economic headwinds could derail their performance. However, the long‑term outlook for 2026 remains encouraging if these firms can navigate the challenges and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

For investors, the takeaway is clear: keep a close eye on the risk indicators highlighted in the article, stay diversified, and consider a tactical allocation to these names only if they fit within a broader, risk‑balanced portfolio. The story is still unfolding, but the article provides a useful compass for navigating the coming months in India’s large‑cap arena.