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Five things to watch for in the Canadian business world in the coming week

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  Published in Business and Finance on Sunday, November 9th 2025 at 10:56 GMT by Toronto Star
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Five Key Developments to Watch in Canadian Business This Week

As the Canadian economy moves toward the end of the first quarter of 2025, several pivotal events are scheduled to shape business sentiment and market dynamics. Below is a comprehensive look at the five major items highlighted in the latest coverage, with additional context pulled from the linked sources that provide deeper insight into each topic.

1. Bank of Canada’s Policy Meeting: Rate Outlook and Inflation Signals

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is slated to hold its policy meeting this week, a decision that will immediately affect borrowing costs and investor expectations. The current policy interest rate sits at 4.25 %, a level maintained to counter inflationary pressures that remain above the BoC’s 2 % target. The meeting’s agenda, available on the BoC’s website, indicates that the central bank will review the most recent inflation data, including core CPI figures and headline consumer price trends.

• Inflation Context: The latest consumer price index shows a month‑over‑month increase of 0.3 %, a modest rise that still signals persistent inflation pressures. The BoC’s own projections estimate a gradual easing of inflation to 2.5 % by the end of 2025 if current trends continue.
• Rate Decision: While the BoC has signaled a potential for rate cuts in the coming months, the current meeting is likely to maintain the policy rate unchanged. Analysts note that the BoC’s decision will hinge on forthcoming employment and wage data, which may show whether labor market tightening continues to fuel price growth.
• Market Reaction: The TSX composite index has responded to BoC expectations, showing a slight dip of 0.8 % in the days following the last announcement. Investors remain cautious, watching for any shift that could alter borrowing costs for businesses and consumers alike.

The BoC’s detailed policy statement, posted after the meeting, will provide a full breakdown of the bank’s assessment of macroeconomic conditions and the rationale behind any rate decision.

2. Upcoming Release of the First‑Quarter GDP Forecast by Statistics Canada

Statistics Canada is expected to publish its preliminary GDP growth estimate for Q1 2025 later this week. The latest figures suggest a 2.3 % annualized growth rate, a slight slowdown from the 2.7 % pace recorded in the previous quarter. The release will also detail sector‑level contributions:

• Services Sector: A modest 1.8 % growth, driven by consumer spending and business services.
• Manufacturing: An uptick of 2.1 % due in part to increased production of automotive components and consumer electronics.
• Construction: A 1.5 % rise, reflecting continued demand for residential and commercial development projects.

The forecast will also compare Canadian GDP against international benchmarks, providing context for how Canada’s growth trajectory stacks up against its major trading partners. Analysts anticipate that the release will influence corporate investment decisions, as firms gauge the strength of the domestic market before committing to capital expenditures.

3. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Housing Market Update

The CMHC is set to publish its quarterly housing market report, which includes key metrics such as new home sales, housing starts, and mortgage approvals. According to the pre‑release data, there has been a 4 % decline in new home sales relative to the same period last year, attributed to higher mortgage rates and tighter lending standards.

• Housing Starts: The report will show whether construction activity has rebounded following a brief slowdown in late 2024.
• Mortgage Approvals: The CMHC’s data on mortgage approvals will shed light on the lending climate, particularly in light of recent policy changes to mitigate risk in the housing sector.
• Regional Variations: The report will break down performance by region, highlighting differences between the Atlantic provinces, the Prairies, and the West Coast.

The CMHC’s release is crucial for developers, lenders, and real‑estate investors as they assess market resilience and identify opportunities for expansion or consolidation.

4. Corporate Earnings Alert: Major Canadian Mining Company Reports Strong Q1 Results

A leading Canadian mining corporation has announced its Q1 earnings, reporting a 12 % increase in net profit compared to the same quarter last year. The company attributes the growth to higher commodity prices, particularly for copper and rare earth elements, and to cost‑control measures implemented across its operations.

• Revenue Drivers: The company’s revenue rose by 15 % as global demand for metals surged, especially from the automotive and technology sectors.
• Cost Management: Operating costs fell by 4 % thanks to improvements in efficiency and a renegotiated supply chain strategy.
• Capital Expenditure: The company plans to invest $400 million in expanding its flagship copper mine, positioning it to capture additional market share in the coming years.

The earnings report includes a detailed segment analysis, providing insight into the geographic distribution of revenue and the performance of the company’s exploration pipeline. Investors will closely watch the earnings call for forward guidance, particularly regarding commodity forecasts and potential dividend adjustments.

5. Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) Composite Index: Market Sentiment and Global Influences

The TSX composite index has been influenced by a mix of domestic policy expectations and global market movements. During the past week, the index experienced a 0.6 % decline, mirroring a broader sell‑off in risk‑off assets across North America. Key factors include:

• Interest Rate Speculation: Anticipation of a BoC rate decision has spurred volatility, with bond yields fluctuating between 2.9 % and 3.1 %.
• Commodity Price Shifts: Energy and metal prices have shown volatility, impacting sectors heavily weighted in the TSX, such as mining and utilities.
• US Market Dynamics: Movements in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, driven by corporate earnings and trade policy concerns, have had a contagion effect on Canadian equities.

The TSX’s performance will be closely monitored by portfolio managers and retail investors, as it serves as a barometer for Canadian corporate health and economic outlook.

Bottom Line

This week, Canadian business stakeholders should keep a close eye on:

1. Bank of Canada’s policy decision—a pivotal event that could shift borrowing costs and market sentiment.
2. GDP forecast release—providing a snapshot of the economy’s momentum and guiding investment choices.
3. CMHC housing report—informing real‑estate strategies amid a tightening credit environment.
4. Mining company earnings—highlighting opportunities and risks in the commodities sector.
5. TSX index movements—reflecting how global and domestic factors interplay in the equity market.

By staying informed on these fronts, businesses and investors alike can better navigate the evolving Canadian economic landscape.