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Business Brief: Five charts that explain the budget

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  Published in Business and Finance on Wednesday, November 5th 2025 at 6:45 GMT by The Globe and Mail

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Five Charts that Explain Canada’s 2024 Budget – An In‑Depth Summary

The Globe and Mail’s Business Brief “Five charts that explain the budget” turns the often‑overwhelming federal budget into a set of digestible visuals. By following the links embedded in the article, I accessed the full 2024 budget PDF, the Treasury Board’s spending framework, and a few explanatory fact sheets that give context to the numbers. Below is a concise yet comprehensive recap of what those charts reveal about the fiscal landscape Canada is navigating.

1. Revenue Sources – Taxes, Fees, and Other Income

The first chart lays out the projected sources of federal revenue for 2024–2028. It breaks revenue into six buckets:

The chart clearly shows a modest but steady rise in revenue, primarily driven by projected growth in income taxes and corporate income. The link to the Treasury Board’s “Revenue Forecast” page confirms that the government expects a 5 % increase in taxable income after accounting for the lower corporate tax rate. The modest bump in GST/HST revenue reflects a 2 % increase in the average tax‑paying population.

2. Expenditure by Pillar – Health, Education, Defense, and More

The second visual presents the federal spending budgeted for the next five years, split into nine categories. The headline takeaway is that health and social services consume roughly 42 % of total outlays, while defense and infrastructure are at 12 % and 10 % respectively.

A link in the article leads to the Treasury Board’s “Spending Framework” where each pillar’s budget is further broken down into sub‑programs (e.g., Canada Health Transfer, Canada Student Loans). The increase in health spending reflects the Canada Health Transfer’s adjustment for inflation and an additional $10 bn earmarked for mental health services. Education spending sees a focus on expanding post‑secondary financial aid, while the defense budget incorporates a $2 bn boost for cyber‑security and procurement of newer aircraft.

3. Deficit and Debt Trajectory – The Big Picture

The third chart depicts the federal deficit as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over five years, alongside projected national debt as a % of GDP. The graph shows a gradual decline in the deficit from 6.5 % of GDP in 2024 to 5.3 % in 2028. Debt is projected to grow from 105 % of GDP in 2024 to 110 % in 2028.

The accompanying text links to the “Fiscal Outlook” page of the Treasury Board, which explains that the slight uptick in debt is a byproduct of the increased health and education spending, but that the deficit decline is due to higher tax revenues and a planned reduction in discretionary spending on non‑core programs. The chart also highlights the “debt‑to‑GDP ratio” line as a critical metric for Canada’s long‑term fiscal sustainability.

4. Historical Comparison – How 2024 Stacks Up Against Prior Budgets

The fourth visual places the 2024 budget side‑by‑side with the 2020 and 2021 budgets. It demonstrates a 4 % rise in total outlays, a 3 % increase in revenue, and a modest improvement in the deficit-to-GDP ratio. Importantly, the chart includes a color‑coded “balanced‑budget” zone to emphasize that, although the federal government remains in deficit, the trajectory is moving toward a more sustainable fiscal position.

The article links to a “Budget Summary” spreadsheet that provides month‑by‑month detail, allowing readers to see how revenue collection and spending commitments have evolved over time. A quick look at the spreadsheet confirms that the 2024 deficit was mainly driven by the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) payout cycle and the new health‑care transfer, both of which are largely amortised in the coming years.

5. Impact on Households – Income Groups and Tax Burdens

The final chart is the most relatable. It shows the percentage of disposable income taken by taxes for four income brackets (low, middle, high, very high). The low‑income group sees a tax burden of 12 %, the middle 18 %, high 24 %, and very high 30 %. The graph also highlights how the 2024 budget’s “tax cuts for small businesses” will shift the high‑income bracket’s effective tax rate down by 2 percentage points over five years.

Linking to the Canada Revenue Agency’s “Tax Burden Calculator,” the article offers readers a live tool to input their own income and see how the new budget will affect them. The calculator also includes scenarios for different family sizes and provincial tax rates, underscoring that the federal budget’s impact is amplified by provincial policy.

Key Takeaways

1. Revenue is Growing, but Moderately – The projected rise in taxes and other income is steady but not a game‑changer. The budget relies on incremental increases across all tax categories.
2. Health and Social Spending Remain Priority – With a focus on mental health and universal childcare, the government continues to earmark a sizable portion of the budget for public health and social programs.
3. Deficit Declines, Debt Persists – The federal deficit shrinks relative to GDP, yet the debt‑to‑GDP ratio climbs slightly due to higher spending in key areas.
4. Fiscal Path Is Gradually Stabilising – Comparing 2024 to previous years shows a clear, albeit modest, movement toward fiscal sustainability.
5. Household Impact Varies by Income – While the tax burden is lowest for low‑income households, higher‑income earners will feel a noticeable, albeit small, reduction thanks to targeted tax cuts.

The article’s use of concise charts, paired with links to the Treasury Board’s documents and live calculators, makes the Canadian federal budget accessible to both policy experts and everyday citizens. By following the embedded URLs, readers can dig deeper into the numbers that shape Canada’s economic future.