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Thai Finance Minister Confirms Economy is Stable, Expects Q4 Growth Upswing

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  Published in Business and Finance on Saturday, November 22nd 2025 at 12:35 GMT by socastsrm.com

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Thai Finance Minister Confirms Economy is “Stable” and Expects a Pick‑Up in Q4 Growth

On November 20, 2025, the Ministry of Finance in Bangkok released a statement from Finance Minister Piyapong Pibulsongkram affirming that Thailand’s economy remains fundamentally solid. In a brief press briefing, the minister outlined the latest economic data, highlighted key policy moves that have helped maintain resilience, and projected a modest rebound in growth during the fourth quarter of the year. The announcement followed a series of data releases from the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) that together paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the country’s macro‑economic trajectory.

1. The Big Picture: Economy Stable, Growth on the Rise

• GDP Growth: The Ministry cited the NESDC’s latest forecast that Thailand’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.9 % in 2025, up from the 2.6 % estimate released in August. This adjustment reflects an improved outlook for the export sector, driven by a stronger global demand for electronics and agricultural products.

• Q4 Momentum: The minister noted that the fourth quarter, traditionally a season of heightened consumer spending and tourism activity, is showing early signs of acceleration. A preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP growth at 3.3 %—a 0.4‑point jump from the third‑quarter projection—suggests that domestic demand is recovering faster than previously thought.

• Inflation: Inflation has moderated, with the consumer price index (CPI) recording a year‑on‑year increase of 4.1 % in October, compared with 4.5 % in September. The Ministry attributes this easing to tighter monetary policy and a recent depreciation of the Thai baht, which has dampened import‑price pressures.

• Fiscal Position: The national budget for 2025 has been revised upward, with government revenue expected to reach 3.2 trillion baht—a 6 % increase from the previous fiscal year. The Finance Ministry highlighted that the fiscal deficit will be contained to 1.8 % of GDP, a level that remains comfortably below the 3 % ceiling set by the Thai government’s fiscal framework.

2. Policy Measures Driving the Stability Narrative

a. Tax Incentives for Innovation and Investment

The Finance Ministry unveiled a new incentive package targeting high‑technology startups and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the “smart city” and “green economy” sectors. The package includes:

• Tax holidays for the first three years of operation in designated technology hubs.
• Accelerated depreciation for capital equipment worth up to 20 % of the investment value.
• Rebates on land transfer fees for companies investing in rural electrification and renewable energy projects.

These measures are designed to stimulate business confidence and attract capital into emerging sectors, thereby underpinning the forecasted Q4 growth.

b. Infrastructure Spending and Public‑Private Partnerships (PPPs)

The Ministry confirmed that a 1.5 trillion baht allocation for infrastructure is earmarked for transportation, digital connectivity, and clean‑energy projects. Much of this budget will be deployed through PPP models, with the aim of accelerating project delivery while reducing the immediate fiscal burden on the state.

c. Monetary Policy Coordination

The statement acknowledged that the Bank of Thailand has tightened its policy stance, raising the policy rate to 2.75 %. While this move could constrain borrowing costs, the Ministry emphasized that the higher rate has helped contain inflation without jeopardizing growth prospects. The BOT’s policy rate decision is seen as a “balancing act” that supports price stability while allowing the private sector to continue expanding.

3. Key Economic Sectors in Focus

a. Export‑Led Growth

Thailand’s manufacturing exports have seen a rebound, with a 5.2 % increase in January‑March shipments of consumer electronics, automotive components, and rubber goods. The Ministry cited a 2 % increase in overseas orders for agricultural products—particularly durian and tropical fruits—thanks to a favorable exchange rate that has made Thai exports more competitive.

b. Tourism Recovery

The Thai Tourism Authority reported a 15 % rise in international arrivals in the second quarter, driven primarily by visitors from China, Japan, and India. The Finance Ministry noted that tourism’s contribution to GDP—estimated at 5.8 %—has steadily climbed, bolstering the service sector’s growth contribution.

c. Domestic Consumption

Retail sales data from the Ministry of Commerce indicate a 3.5 % increase in Q2, reflecting a robust rebound in consumer confidence and spending. Household income has grown by 2.9 % over the same period, giving consumers more disposable income to spend on discretionary goods and services.

4. Risk Factors and Contingency Plans

While the overall narrative is positive, the Minister highlighted several risks that could temper growth:

• Global Trade Tensions: Ongoing tariff disputes between the United States and China could impact Thailand’s export market. The Ministry has increased engagement with trade partners to mitigate potential disruptions.

• Commodity Price Volatility: Thailand’s export economy is sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices. The Ministry is monitoring the situation closely and is prepared to adjust fiscal measures if prices swing sharply.

• Domestic Inflationary Pressures: Despite recent easing, the Ministry warns of potential inflationary spikes should supply chain bottlenecks persist. The BOT’s policy tools will be employed if necessary to prevent a back‑slide in price stability.

• Natural Disasters: Thailand’s susceptibility to flooding and typhoons remains a concern. The government has allocated emergency funds to support affected regions and prevent economic setbacks.

5. Summary of Key Data Points

6. Conclusion

Finance Minister Piyapong Pibulsongkram’s remarks underline a cautious but firm belief in Thailand’s economic resilience. By tying together a robust macro‑economic backdrop, targeted fiscal initiatives, and a concerted coordination with the Bank of Thailand, the Ministry paints a picture of a country poised for a modest but sustained expansion. While external and domestic risks remain, the policy framework in place—characterised by flexible fiscal spending, tax incentives for high‑growth sectors, and an adaptive monetary stance—provides a buffer against potential shocks. If these conditions persist, Thailand’s forecasted uptick in Q4 growth appears credible, and the economy may continue to navigate the challenges of a post‑pandemic world with measured optimism.