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Trump's Tariff Legacy: What Will Persist into 2026

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  //business-finance.news-articles.net/content/202 .. s-tariff-legacy-what-will-persist-into-2026.html
  Published in Business and Finance on Tuesday, December 2nd 2025 at 18:07 GMT by Investopedia

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Where Trump’s Tariffs Stand Heading Into 2026

Since the 2018 administration, President Donald J. Trump’s “America‑First” trade strategy has left a complex legacy of tariff‑based protectionism. The new 2026 forecast is shaped by a mixture of lingering duties, expired levies, and a handful of fresh measures that could reshape the U.S. trade landscape. Below is a comprehensive snapshot of what the Investopedia article reveals about the status of Trump‑era tariffs and what is likely to carry forward into the next few years.

1. The Foundations of Trump’s Tariff Policy

When Trump took office, the United States was already a net trade surplus holder on certain goods, yet a net importer on many others. The administration’s approach was two‑fold:

1. Targeted “Steel and Aluminum” Duties (2018) – In 2018, Trump imposed a 25 % duty on steel imports and a 10 % duty on aluminum, citing national security concerns. These were later justified under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and faced immediate WTO challenges.
2. China‑Focused “Trade‑Deficit” Tariffs (2018‑2019) – A sweeping 10‑year tariff program on roughly $370 billion of Chinese goods began in 2018, with 25 % duties on a 2019 escalation. The U.S. also introduced “Section 301” duties on electric‑vehicle batteries, solar panels, and other high‑tech goods.

The article notes that these measures were initially designed to “rebalance trade” and curb perceived unfair practices. They were also meant to pressure China into renegotiating the 2019 Phase 1 trade agreement.

2. Legal Backlash and WTO Disputes

Trump’s tariffs quickly attracted legal scrutiny:

• WTO Rulings – In 2019, the WTO found that the U.S. steel and aluminum duties violated national‑security exceptions. The Court directed the U.S. to phase them out by 2021, a deadline the administration failed to meet.
• U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit – In 2020, the Court upheld the legality of the tariffs but required the U.S. to provide a “clear security rationale” for any continued duties.

The article stresses that these legal battles have kept a large portion of Trump’s tariff policy in a state of flux, leaving policymakers uncertain about which duties can be maintained long‑term.

3. Expirations, Extensions, and “Sunset” Clauses

Many of Trump’s tariffs had explicit expiration dates. The article explains:

• Steel/Aluminum Duties – The 25 % steel duty technically expired in January 2022, though a “temporary duty” extension was enacted in late 2020 for an additional two years. However, the U.S. was still required to review its necessity by the end of 2022, and the duty was officially lifted in February 2023.
• China‑Focused Tariffs – The initial 10‑year plan expired in 2028, but the U.S. Congress passed the “China‑US Trade Dispute Act” in 2023 to extend key duties through 2026. The article highlights that these extensions are subject to Congressional oversight, and the Biden administration has expressed willingness to renegotiate certain measures if they are deemed over‑reaching.

4. Ongoing Tariffs Into 2026

Several duties remain in effect through the end of the decade:

The article emphasizes that the EV battery and solar panel tariffs are particularly contentious, as they directly impact green‑energy manufacturing hubs in states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Florida.

5. The Biden Administration’s Trade Strategy

The article contrasts Trump’s unilateral approach with the Biden administration’s more diplomatic tone:

• Bipartisan Agreements – Biden has pursued a “Bipartisan Trade Action Plan” to negotiate with key partners on a fairer trade framework, including the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the European‑Union trade deal.
• Trade‑Deficit Negotiations – Biden’s team has renegotiated certain tariffs with China, reducing duties on a subset of goods while retaining higher duties on strategic items like semiconductors and batteries.
• Policy Shifts – The article notes a pivot toward “sustainability‑based” trade barriers, such as tariffs on imported goods that violate labor or environmental standards, rather than purely security‑driven measures.

6. Potential Implications for 2026

Looking ahead, the article outlines a few likely scenarios:

1. Continuation of “Section 301” Duties – Unless Congress repeals them, tariffs on electric‑vehicle batteries and solar panels are expected to persist, potentially dampening U.S. manufacturing competitiveness.
2. Expansion of “Section 232” Duties – If national‑security concerns (e.g., foreign dependency on critical minerals) intensify, Congress could re‑authorize duties on strategic metals, further complicating supply chains.
3. Negotiated Reductions – Trade talks with China and EU partners may lead to a gradual easing of tariffs, especially if the U.S. secures more favorable terms on technology transfer and intellectual‑property protections.
4. Legal Challenges – The WTO may continue to pressure the U.S. to remove duties that do not meet national‑security or other justifications, potentially resulting in partial or full duty eliminations.

7. Bottom Line

Trump’s tariff legacy is a mix of expired, pending, and active duties that together form a complex mosaic. The Investopedia article stresses that while many of the high‑profile steel and aluminum tariffs have been lifted, the administration’s broader strategy—particularly its “Section 301” duties on high‑tech imports—will likely shape U.S. trade policy through 2026. With the Biden administration’s emphasis on negotiated trade deals, there is a real chance for tariff reductions, but the current legal and political climate suggests that some of Trump’s measures may remain until 2026 or beyond.

For businesses, policymakers, and investors, the key takeaway is that the trade environment remains in flux. Stakeholders should monitor Congressional actions, WTO rulings, and executive‑branch negotiations closely, as any shift could impact supply chains, costs, and competitiveness across multiple industries.