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Thailand's Economy Stays Resilient, Finance Minister Anticipates Q4 Growth Pick-Up

  //business-finance.news-articles.net/content/202 .. ance-minister-anticipates-q4-growth-pick-up.html
  Published in Business and Finance on Thursday, November 20th 2025 at 22:59 GMT by Channel NewsAsia Singapore

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Thai Economy Remains Resilient – Finance Minister Forecasts Q4 Growth Pick‑Up

Channel News Asia – 20 November 2025

Thailand’s finance minister announced that the country’s economy has remained stable and is poised for a rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025. Speaking at a press conference in Bangkok, the minister highlighted a combination of domestic demand, government‑led investment, and a favourable global environment as the key drivers of the projected uptick. The remarks, published by Channel News Asia, come amid a broader backdrop of cautious optimism as Southeast Asian economies rebound from the disruptions of the COVID‑19 pandemic.

1. Current Economic Outlook

The minister noted that Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualised rate of 2.5 % in the first half of 2025, surpassing the World Bank’s 2024 forecast of 2.3 %. “The data demonstrate that the economy is on a steady path of recovery,” the finance minister said, citing robust retail sales, steady manufacturing output, and a surge in domestic tourism. While the growth rate has been modest, the ministry argues that the underlying fundamentals—especially consumer confidence—are strong.

2. Q4 Growth Projections

In his forward‑looking statement, the finance minister outlined expectations for the final quarter of the year. “We see a growth pick‑up in Q4, with the economy likely expanding by 2.8 %,” he added. This projection is grounded in several factors:

• Tourism Revival – With the lifting of travel restrictions and a spike in outbound and inbound visitors, the tourism sector is forecast to contribute 4 % to GDP in Q4. Hotel occupancy rates are already 18 % higher than the same period last year.
• Government Investment – Infrastructure spending is set to rise, particularly in the transportation and digital‑economy sectors. The Thai government has earmarked 1.2 trillion baht for public‑private partnerships, which is expected to inject additional demand into the economy.
• Monetary Policy Stance – The Bank of Thailand remains accommodative, with its policy rate at 1.75 % and maintaining a target inflation range of 1–3 %. The lower rate encourages borrowing and investment, providing a stimulus to growth.

3. Fiscal Policy & Budget Outlook

The finance minister reaffirmed the government's commitment to prudent fiscal management. The 2025 fiscal year is projected to run a budget surplus of 1.4 % of GDP, a significant improvement from the 0.6 % surplus recorded in 2024. The ministry attributes this to a combination of higher tax receipts, largely from corporate profits and VAT, and disciplined spending on core social programmes.

A key feature of the fiscal strategy is the re‑allocation of funds toward digital infrastructure. By 2026, the ministry aims to have upgraded broadband coverage to 90 % of the population, aligning with broader national objectives to boost the digital economy. In addition, the government plans to reduce the debt‑to‑GDP ratio from 30.5 % to below 28 % over the next two years, signaling a disciplined approach to public finances.

4. Inflation and Price Stability

While growth is accelerating, the finance minister acknowledged that price pressures remain a concern. Inflation has settled at 2.7 % in October 2025, comfortably within the Bank of Thailand’s target band. The ministry credits the stable food and energy prices as primary factors behind this moderation. However, the minister warned that any global commodity shock—particularly a sudden spike in oil or grain prices—could push inflation beyond the desired range.

5. External Trade & Global Factors

Thailand’s trade environment remains favourable. The country’s main trading partners—China, Japan, and the United States—continue to maintain demand for Thai exports, especially in automotive parts, electronics, and agriculture. The finance minister stressed that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) remains a critical platform, ensuring that Thailand continues to benefit from trade liberalisation and tariff reductions.

Nevertheless, the minister cautioned that geopolitical tensions, particularly the US‑China trade dynamics, could pose a risk. “We need to remain vigilant,” he added. “But our diversified export base mitigates this risk to a large extent.”

6. Policy Recommendations

In order to sustain the projected growth trajectory, the finance minister outlined a set of policy measures:

1. Maintain Monetary Easing – Keep policy rates at or below 1.75 % until inflation firmly stabilises at 2 % and GDP growth consistently exceeds 2.5 %.
2. Accelerate Digitalisation – Continue funding for digital infrastructure and promote e‑government services to reduce administrative friction.
3. Support Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs) – Expand access to credit for SMEs, particularly those in technology and green sectors, through targeted subsidies and low‑interest loan programmes.
4. Enhance Workforce Development – Invest in vocational training and upskilling initiatives to match the evolving demands of a knowledge‑based economy.
5. Maintain Fiscal Discipline – Ensure that the surplus remains intact while pursuing necessary investment, thereby preserving investor confidence.

7. Looking Ahead

The finance minister’s statements paint an optimistic picture of Thailand’s economic future. By 2026, the country aims to maintain a growth rate above 3 % while achieving a debt‑to‑GDP ratio below 28 %. The policy mix—balancing monetary accommodation, fiscal prudence, and targeted investment—offers a robust framework for continued resilience.

While the outlook remains positive, the government remains vigilant about external shocks and domestic price volatility. By remaining adaptable and maintaining a clear focus on both macro‑economic stability and structural reforms, Thailand aims to not only recover but also accelerate its transformation into a modern, digital‑economy hub.

This article is a summary of the Channel News Asia piece titled “Finance Minister says Thai economy stable, sees Q4 growth picking up” and incorporates context from related articles and official statements cited therein.