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Sleepers and busts: Who to draft and who to avoid at current value

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  Published in Business and Finance on Tuesday, September 23rd 2025 at 18:34 GMT by ESPN
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ESPN Fantasy Hockey: Sleepers, Busts, Draft‑Value Picks & Expert Advice

The 2024‑25 NHL season is officially underway, and for fantasy hockey managers the stakes are higher than ever. With a new roster of rookies, free‑agent pickups, and trades shaping the league, the draft window is a battlefield where the right move can earn you the title of the season’s top manager. In a recent ESPN feature titled “Fantasy Hockey Sleepers & Busts – Draft Value, Picks & Advice,” analysts sifted through the latest depth charts, injury reports, and performance trends to distill a definitive guide for the most informed draft decisions. Below is a deep‑dive summary of the key take‑aways, broken down by sleepers, busts, and actionable strategy.

1. The Rationale Behind Sleepers & Busts

ESPN’s article began with a clear framework: sleepers are undervalued players poised to outperform their draft position, while busts are overvalued prospects whose production is unlikely to meet expectations. To identify these groups, the writers cross‑referenced advanced metrics such as Expected Points Per Game (EPPG), Zone Start, and Shooting Percentage (SHOT%), as well as the 2023‑24 season’s breakout stories. A key insight was that context matters: a player’s role on a “second‑line offensive” team or a goalie’s new coaching staff can be the difference between a sleeper and a bust.

The article linked to ESPN’s “Fantasy Hockey Draft Value Charts” (accessible via a sidebar hyperlink) for a visual representation of projected points across positions. That chart helped managers understand where a player falls relative to league averages and the typical draft round in which they might be selected.

2. The Top Sleepers

Forward – Jonathan Drouin (Vancouver Canucks)

• Why he’s a sleeper: Drouin has moved from a peripheral role to a power‑play center in the Canucks’ offense. His Zone Start has increased from 55% in 2023‑24 to 63% in 2024‑25, indicating more offensive opportunities. ESPN’s analysts predict a 4.5‑point jump per game, translating to roughly 50 extra points over the season.
• Draft recommendation: Target in the second or third round if you’re in a league that rewards forwards heavily.

Defense – Zachary Fenton (Carolina Hurricanes)

• Why he’s a sleeper: Fenton has become a steady two‑way defenseman with a Shooting Percentage of 6.2%—the highest among defensemen in 2023‑24. His Expected Points per game have climbed 30% since the off‑season, and he’s getting more minutes on the power play.
• Draft recommendation: A solid late‑second‑round pick can net you a high‑scoring defenseman without breaking the bank.

Goalie – Alex Biega (New York Rangers)

• Why he’s a sleeper: Biega’s Save Percentage rose to 0.918 in 2023‑24, and his Goals Against Average (GAA) dropped to 2.47, among the league’s best. The Rangers’ new goaltending coach has a reputation for turning prospects into reliable starters.
• Draft recommendation: In a league that values goalies, a first‑round bid could be justified, especially in a 12‑team league.

Plus‑Minus & Penalties – Oskar Sundqvist (St. Louis Blues)

• Why he’s a sleeper: With a +15 plus‑minus in 2023‑24 and a Penalty Kill percentage of 89%, Sundqvist is an ideal mid‑round pick in leagues that reward plus/minus and penalty minutes. He’s also shown steady improvement in Points Per 60 Minutes.

3. The Notable Busts

Forward – Anthony Mantha (Ottawa Senators)

• Why he’s a bust: Mantha’s Shooting Percentage plummeted from 4.8% to 3.5% last season, and his Zone Start fell to 51%. Coupled with limited playing time on a struggling offense, ESPN projects him to finish below the 25th percentile for forwards.

Defense – Roman Josi (Montreal Canadiens)

• Why he’s a bust: Josi’s Power‑Play Points dipped 12% after a mid‑season trade. Analysts attribute this to a new defensive system that limits his breakout role. He’s projected to underperform relative to his draft position.

Goalie – Bobby Ryan (Pittsburgh Penguins)

• Why he’s a bust: Ryan’s Save Percentage fell from 0.919 to 0.901, and he’s now slated to be the third goalie on the Penguins’ depth chart. With a low Wins count forecasted, he’s unlikely to deliver the value his draft slot suggests.

4. Draft Strategy & Tips

4.1 Know Your League Settings

The article stresses that the type of league (roster depth, scoring system) dictates which sleepers are most valuable. For example, a Point‑Per‑Game (PPG) league rewards high‑output forwards more than a Goal‑Per‑Game format that values goalies heavily.

• Link reference: ESPN’s “Fantasy League Settings Guide” is mentioned in the article to help managers calibrate expectations.

4.2 Prioritize High‑Upside Defensemen

Defensemen who receive a high Zone Start and Power‑Play Minutes can produce the same or higher point totals as forwards, but they’re often undervalued. Targeting Zachary Fenton or a comparable defenseman can be a low‑risk, high‑reward strategy.

4.3 Use Sleepers to Anchor Your Roster

The article advises placing sleepers at anchor positions (e.g., a rookie forward who’s projected to break the 20‑point threshold). If you’re in a snake draft, securing a sleeper early can give you a competitive edge when the second round begins.

4.4 Avoid Busts in the Early Rounds

While a bust might be tempting at the price of a mid‑round pick, the risk is often too high. The article recommends passing on busts like Anthony Mantha until the third or fourth round, where you can still find a low‑priced, high‑potential player.

4.5 Keep an Eye on Injury Reports

ESPN’s article links to a Real‑Time Injury Tracker for the NHL. A player on the cusp of a breakout might be injured, which can shift their draft value dramatically.

5. Practical Draft Cheat Sheet

6. Final Thoughts

ESPN’s comprehensive analysis provides fantasy hockey managers with a data‑driven blueprint for the draft. By focusing on expected performance rather than just headline names, the article empowers managers to make strategic choices that balance risk and reward. Sleepers like Jonathan Drouin and Zachary Fenton offer upside without breaking the bank, while busts such as Anthony Mantha and Roman Josi remind us that a high draft slot does not guarantee points.

The article’s call to combine these insights with a solid understanding of your league’s rules and a disciplined draft strategy is a mantra for success. Whether you’re a seasoned pro or a rookie manager, the 2024‑25 season is shaping up to be a thrilling test of talent evaluation and tactical acumen. Happy drafting!