Israel eyes changing CPI publication to before markets open

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  Business and Finance on Sat, Aug 23rd, 2025 by reuters.com

Israel Central Bank Considers Moving CPI Release Time to Pre‑Market, Reuters Reports

Jerusalem – July 20, 2025 – In a move that could reshape how Israeli investors and traders react to inflation data, the Bank of Israel (BoI) is reportedly weighing a change to the timing of its Consumer Price Index (CPI) publication. Reuters first reported that the central bank is exploring the possibility of releasing CPI figures before the start of the domestic trading day, rather than at the current late‑night schedule. The proposed shift would give market participants a head start on digesting the inflation reading, potentially smoothing out the sharp post‑release price swings that have become a hallmark of Israeli equities.

Why the Timing Matters

The BoI’s CPI, released each month on the 15th of the following month, has long been a key gauge of Israel’s inflation trajectory. While the data is publicly available on the BoI’s website, the late‑night release—typically at 11:30 p.m. Jerusalem time—means that most investors only see the numbers after the market has opened. Consequently, the price action in the early hours often reflects a scramble to assimilate the new inflation figure, sometimes amplifying volatility.

"Moving the CPI out to pre‑market hours would give traders a clearer, real‑time view," said a BoI spokesperson, citing a desire to "align more closely with global best practices and reduce the post‑release trading frictions." Similar timing adjustments have been adopted by a handful of major economies, most notably Canada and the United Kingdom, which publish their CPI data in the early morning.

The BoI’s own methodology page—linking to the central bank’s "CPI Methodology" section—notes that the index is compiled from a basket of goods and services weighted by household expenditure patterns. In recent years, the BoI has updated the basket to better reflect the growing digital economy, including e‑commerce and online retail prices, a change that the BoI’s press releases have said "enhances the relevance of the CPI to consumers."

The Market Implications

Analysts warn that the shift could ripple through multiple asset classes. If traders can assess inflation risk ahead of the trading day, the Israeli Shekel (ILS) may trade more efficiently against the U.S. dollar and other currencies. Moreover, firms with inflation‑linked contracts or pricing power may see less overnight price volatility, potentially dampening the short‑term swings that have historically followed CPI releases.

"In practice, a pre‑market release could make the ILS more forward‑looking," said Jonathan Levi, head of macro strategy at Tel Aviv‑based equity research firm Binyamin & Co. "That means traders might trade the expected policy reaction more gradually, rather than in a jumpy burst."

The BoI’s potential change also comes at a time when Israel’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is preparing for its next rate decision. Inflation has been on an upward trend, with the latest CPI indicating a 4.1% year‑over‑year rise, up from 3.6% in June. The BoI has maintained its policy rate at 4.75% since February, but there is mounting speculation that the MPC could consider tightening further if inflation persists.

"An earlier CPI release could set the tone for the MPC meeting," said Dr. Alon Ben‑Ari, a professor of monetary economics at the Hebrew University. "By aligning market expectations with the actual data, the central bank might reduce the need for drastic policy swings."

Broader Context: Global Trends

The move reflects a broader trend among advanced economies toward more transparent, timely data releases. The U.S. Federal Reserve has long published the CPI on the first Friday of each month, while the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation data typically falls within the market-opening window. Reuters’s coverage of inflation data timing in other regions—most recently the "UK CPI release shift" story—illustrates that central banks are increasingly sensitive to how the market consumes data.

The BoI has not yet formally announced a decision. According to a BoI spokesperson, a detailed briefing will be presented at the upcoming MPC meeting in early August. The spokesperson added that the central bank will consider the impact on market participants, the integrity of the data release, and any potential operational constraints.

What Investors Should Watch

1. BoI Press Releases – Investors should keep an eye on the BoI’s official website for updates on the CPI schedule. A definitive change would be announced via a press release, which also typically includes commentary from the governor or deputy governor.

2. MPC Meeting Minutes – The minutes, usually published a few days after the meeting, will reveal whether the timing change has been approved and what rationale was given.

3. Currency Movements – The ILS will likely respond in the days following the announcement. A smoother, pre‑market release may lead to a less volatile opening of the Shekel.

4. Equity Indexes – The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange’s all‑share index may exhibit lower intraday volatility if the CPI is released before the market opens, especially in sectors sensitive to inflation such as utilities and consumer staples.

5. Bond Yields – Israeli government bond yields may adjust more gradually if the market is better able to incorporate inflation expectations ahead of the trading day.

Conclusion

While still in the exploratory phase, the Bank of Israel’s consideration to shift its CPI release to pre‑market hours marks a significant potential change in the way Israel’s financial markets process inflation data. By allowing traders to digest the numbers before the bell rings, the BoI may reduce post‑release volatility and better align Israeli policy with global standards. Whether the central bank will ultimately adopt the change will hinge on a careful assessment of market impact and operational feasibility, as highlighted by Reuters on July 20. For investors, staying informed through BoI releases, MPC meeting minutes, and the broader market response will be key to navigating the coming weeks as the potential shift unfolds.