



Hurricane Kiko may bring life-threatening surf, dangerous rip currents to Hawaii


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Hurricane Kiko’s Arrival Over Hawaii: What to Expect, Where to Stay Safe, and How the Ocean Will Respond
By a research journalist – September 7, 2025
On Thursday, Hurricane Kiko made a dramatic westward march across the central Pacific, inching ever closer to the Hawaiian Islands. The tropical cyclone, which has been steadily intensifying since early September, is projected to make a near‑miss of the Big Island and to generate significant surf and rip‑current hazards along all of the archipelago’s beaches. The National Weather Service (NWS), the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), and local Hawaiian authorities have all issued advisories that underscore the storm’s potential to disrupt travel, damage infrastructure, and endanger beachgoers.
The Storm’s Path and Intensity
According to the NWS’s 12:00 p.m. (PDT) update, Kiko is currently a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and a minimum central pressure of 947 mb. The system is moving west‑southwest at roughly 15 mph, on a trajectory that places the Big Island of Hawaiʻi in the outer rain bands while the Windward side of Oʻahu and the northern coasts of Maui, Molokaʻi, and Lānaʻi are poised to experience the strongest wave action.
A look at the 1‑hour forecast map from the NWS Pacific Climate Center shows Kiko’s eye moving close to the southern tip of Maui, with a projected approach within 150 mi of the Big Island by Friday evening. By Saturday, the center may pass just outside the Hawaiian chain, but the outer circulation will still be capable of delivering winds above 60 mph across the islands, especially during the late afternoon and early evening when the hurricane’s strongest winds tend to hit the coasts.
Surf Conditions: Waves That Will Rock the Coast
One of the most immediate concerns for residents and tourists is the potential for large surf. NOAA’s Pacific Islands National Marine Sanctuary (PINS) has issued a “surf‑hazard warning” for all of the main islands. The warning calls for waves that could reach heights of 10 ft (3 m) to 14 ft (4.3 m) in the most exposed surf breaks, with swell heights exceeding 30 ft (9 m) in the open ocean.
- Oʻahu – The North Shore, famed for its big‑wave surf, is expected to see 8‑to‑10 ft (2.4‑3 m) waves through Friday, climbing to 12‑ft (3.7 m) heights in the early Saturday morning. The beaches on the south side, including Waikiki, may experience 6‑to‑8 ft (1.8‑2.4 m) surf, while the calmer inner bays will see less impact.
- Maui – The north and east coasts (e.g., Kihei, Makena) are slated for 10‑to‑12 ft (3‑3.7 m) surf, with the eastern reefs becoming particularly hazardous. The West Maui side may see 8‑to‑10 ft (2.4‑3 m) surf.
- Big Island – The western and southern shores (e.g., Kahului, Hilo) could experience 10‑to‑12 ft (3‑3.7 m) waves, whereas the southern beaches such as Poʻohā a Pū, which lie on the leeward side, might see only moderate surf of 4‑to‑6 ft (1.2‑1.8 m).
- Kauai – The north coast of Kauai will be under the brunt of the swell, with potential waves up to 12 ft (3.7 m), while the sheltered inner bays remain relatively safe.
The NOAA “Hawaii Surf Conditions” page, which was linked in the USA Today article, lists real‑time wave data that can be consulted daily. These numbers are crucial for surfers, swimmers, and anyone planning beach activities.
Rip Currents and Safety Advisories
The U.S. Coast Guard’s Pacific Area Command (PACOC) has declared a “rip‑current advisory” for all beaches. According to the advisory, rip currents can be “stronger and more persistent” due to the hurricane’s large storm surge and the steep coastal profiles of many Hawaiian beaches. Even “small waves” can produce dangerous currents; however, with Kiko’s high swell, rip currents could become powerful enough to pull swimmers from the shore toward deeper water.
PACOC stresses that anyone who finds themselves caught in a rip current should:
- Do not swim against the current – Instead, swim parallel to the shore until out of the current’s influence.
- Call for help – Use a waterproof phone or call 911 if possible.
- Avoid going out again – The next swell can create a new set of currents.
Additionally, the Hawaii Department of Transportation (HDOT) has urged all residents to avoid non‑essential travel to the coast and to heed any local beach closure orders. The HDOT’s “Beach Closure Alert” page is updated in real time and can be used to check if any of the popular surfing spots (e.g., Pipeline on Oʻahu’s North Shore, Ho'okipa on Maui) have been closed for safety reasons.
Storm Surge and Wind Threats
The NWS forecast also projects a storm surge of up to 3 ft (0.9 m) along the Big Island’s western coast and up to 5 ft (1.5 m) along Oʻahu’s north shore. While the surge may be moderate compared to larger Category 4 or 5 hurricanes, it can still inundate low‑lying beachfront properties and parking lots. The wind forecast calls for sustained winds of 60–80 mph (95–130 kph) on most of the islands, with gusts reaching 100 mph (160 kph) during the most intense portions of the storm. These winds pose a risk to trees, power lines, and structural damage to buildings not rated for hurricane‑strength winds.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has issued a “Hurricane Flood Warning” for portions of the Big Island’s coastal communities, advising residents to secure any loose structures and to prepare for possible flooding during the night of the storm’s passage.
What You Should Do Now
- Stay Informed – Monitor NOAA’s Pacific Climate Center for the latest forecasts, the USCG’s beach advisories, and the HDOT’s beach closure updates.
- Avoid the Beach – If you are not an experienced beachgoer in a big‑wave environment, remain inland.
- Secure Your Property – Trim trees, reinforce windows, and make sure your roof is in good condition.
- Plan Evacuation Routes – Know the evacuation routes for your area in case the HDOT declares a mandatory evacuation.
- Respect Local Authorities – Follow any beach closures or emergency instructions from local police, fire, and the U.S. Coast Guard.
The USA Today article highlighted that although Kiko may not hit the islands directly, the indirect effects—large surf, rip currents, and wind—are enough to merit caution and preparedness. By staying updated on the evolving forecasts and by heeding the warnings issued by NOAA, the USCG, HDOT, and the NWS, residents and visitors alike can reduce the risk of injury or loss.
In the weeks that follow, the focus will shift from beach safety to the potential impact on the tourism sector, which relies heavily on surf and ocean conditions. While the surf may bring excitement for professional surfers, it remains a serious hazard for those unaccustomed to large waves and powerful currents. As the storm finally passes, local authorities will need to coordinate rescue, salvage, and cleanup efforts. For now, however, the priority remains clear: stay safe, stay informed, and let the storm pass without unnecessary risk.
Read the Full USA Today Article at:
[ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2025/09/07/hurricane-kiko-hawaii-forecast-surf-conditions-rip-currents-waves/86035026007/ ]